{"id":2457,"date":"2026-03-25T15:23:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T15:23:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/?p=2457"},"modified":"2026-03-25T15:23:31","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T15:23:31","slug":"democrat-emily-gregorys-win-on-trumps-turf-spells-midterm-doom-for-gop-cnn-data-buff-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/?p=2457","title":{"rendered":"Democrat Emily Gregory\u2019s win on Trump&#8217;s turf spells midterm doom for GOP, CNN data buff warns"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <div style=\"display: grid; grid-template-columns: 300px 160px; gap: 2px; width: 460px; background: #eee; padding: 2px;\">\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u6574\u884c\u5bbd\u5e7f\u544a -->\r\n  <div style=\"grid-column: 1\/-1; width: 460px; height: 250px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876674\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n  <div style=\"grid-column: 1\/-1; width: 460px; height: 90px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876676\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u5de6\u4fa7\u7ad6\u6392 -->\r\n  <div style=\"height: 250px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876672\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n  <div style=\"height: 500px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876680\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u53f3\u4fa7\u6469\u5929\u697c\uff08\u548c\u5de6\u4fa7\u5b8c\u5168\u5bf9\u9f50\uff09 -->\r\n  <div style=\"grid-row: 3\/5; height: 750px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876678\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n  \r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e6\" data-zoneid=\"5876682\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n<\/div><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>WASHINGTON \u2014\u00a0Tuesday\u2019s upset victory by Florida Democrat Emily Gregory in President Trump\u2019s home state House district is a bad sign for Republicans hoping to hold Congress in the November midterms, CNN data buff Harry Enten predicted.<\/p>\n<p>While Democrats have a long history of holding Florida\u2019s 87th House District, including from 2012 to 2024, Gregory\u2019s special election victory in a district Trump carried by 10 points two years ago is the latest in a string of defeats and underperformance by Republican candidates, Enten explained.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat is so important \u2014 it is happening now in Donald Trump\u2019s backyard \u2014 but it has been happening across the country,\u201d Enten said on \u201cErin Burnett Outfront\u201d Tuesday night. \u201cWe have seen these massive shifts in these special elections.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHistorically speaking,\u201d he added, \u201cspecial elections have forecasted what will happen in the midterm elections.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Gregory defeated Trump-endorsed Republican Jon Maples by fewer than 800 votes out of more than 33,000 ballots cast in the Palm Beach-anchored district, which includes Trump\u2019s Mar-a-Lago resort and residence. In November 2024, Republican Mike Caruso had cruised to victory by 19 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p>Caruso left the seat vacant when he resigned in August to become Palm Beach County clerk and comptroller.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module aligncenter wp-block-nypost-editor-primary-tag\">\n<\/aside>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Emily Gregory flipped the Florida state House district where President Trump resides blue in Tuesday\u2019s special election. <span class=\"credit\">Emily Gregory for Florida<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Harry Enten warned that the special election in Florida\u2019s 87th district could be a preview of a midterm fiasco for Republicans. <span class=\"credit\">Matt Baron\/BEI \/ Shutterstock<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u201c[What] we\u2019ve seen so far is a shift to the Democrats on average of 12 points [from 2024],\u201d Enten said Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI went all the way back, since I was in high school, back to the 2005-2006 cycle, and every single time that a party outperformed the presidential baseline in the next midterm election, what we saw was, five out of five times that party went on to win the US House of Representatives,\u201d he went on.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSo what is happening right now in Mar-a-Lago is unlikely to stay in Mar-a-Lago. It is likely to expand nationwide and to expand in the midterm elections as well.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>President Trump is planning to go all out on the campaign trail to boost Republicans in the 2026 midterms.  <span class=\"credit\">Graeme Sloan \u2013 Pool via CNP\/Shutterstock<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Republicans have long been seen as the underdogs in the Nov. 3 midterms. Since 1938, the party in control of the White House has lost House seats in all but two half-term elections \u2014 1998 and 2002.<\/p>\n<p>Republicans currently hold a 218-214 House majority with three vacancies, meaning they need a historic midterm overperformance to keep the chamber.<\/p>\n<p>A Democratic House will almost certainly launch an onslaught of investigations into Trump, his family, and allies, creating political headaches for the president during his final two years in office.<\/p>\n<p>Trump is keen on avoiding that fate and plans to keep a robust campaign schedule, as The Post previously reported.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- \u603b\u5bb9\u5668\uff1a\u6700\u5927\u5bbd908px Grid\u7d27\u51d1\u5e03\u5c40 -->\r\n<div style=\"display: grid; grid-template-columns: 728px 160px; gap:2px; width:908px; background:#eee; padding:2px;\">\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u901a\u680f\u9876\u90e8\uff1a\u6700\u5927\u6a2a\u5e45 908x258 \u8de8\u6574\u884c -->\r\n  <div style=\"grid-column:1\/-1; height:258px; 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