{"id":22997,"date":"2026-10-15T07:56:53","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T07:56:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/?p=22997"},"modified":"2026-10-15T07:56:53","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T07:56:53","slug":"op-ed-ai-revenue-numbers-arent-stacking-up-the-markets-are-responding-to-every-breeze","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/?p=22997","title":{"rendered":"Op-Ed: AI revenue numbers aren\u2019t stacking up: The markets are responding to every breeze"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <div style=\"display: grid; grid-template-columns: 300px 160px; gap: 2px; width: 460px; background: #eee; padding: 2px;\">\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u6574\u884c\u5bbd\u5e7f\u544a -->\r\n  <div style=\"grid-column: 1\/-1; width: 460px; height: 250px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876674\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n  <div style=\"grid-column: 1\/-1; width: 460px; height: 90px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876676\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u5de6\u4fa7\u7ad6\u6392 -->\r\n  <div style=\"height: 250px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876672\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n  <div style=\"height: 500px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876680\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u53f3\u4fa7\u6469\u5929\u697c\uff08\u548c\u5de6\u4fa7\u5b8c\u5168\u5bf9\u9f50\uff09 -->\r\n  <div style=\"grid-row: 3\/5; height: 750px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876678\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n  \r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e6\" data-zoneid=\"5876682\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n<\/div><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div style=\"padding-right:0;padding-left:0\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This new approach to market behaviourism analysis definitely won\u2019t reassure anyone. The markets are fighting their own numbers and the lack of numbers in key areas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The resulting chaotic mess is <strong>patiently explained by <em>The Economist<\/em> in some depth, explaining the tides of \u201cunreliable numbers\u201d and market responses.<\/strong> The problem is that market people are getting tired of the chaos. Investors certainly are.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The numbers are \u201cunreliable\u201d in too many extremely expensive ways. After all this time promising rivers of gold, a large and rather pretentious dripping tap seems to be the result. Markets are overreacting as they always do, but they\u2019re hitting direct market investments hard in the process.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The Economist<\/em> points out Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) as a case in point. This is a key metric, and one of the big issues is reporting quality. The ARR and many other core reporting topics are what\u2019s worrying the markets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you\u2019re not an accountant:<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Comparing revenues over set periods is standard practice.<\/strong> Anthropic reported revenue of $16.8bn in Q3, after revenue of $65bn in Q2. Any questions? That\u2019s a big bandwidth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and<\/strong> <strong>amortisation) i<\/strong>s another contentious issue in every sense. EBITDA can be manipulated too look good , feel good, and be the basis of higher-value loans. It can also be the basis of massive hype. That\u2019s not exactly popular.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Sources of revenue matter a lot.<\/strong> Pulling numbers out of a blue sky doesn\u2019t cut the mustard with hard money investors. Breaking down and analysing revenue can\u2019t be done with a few cooperative tea leaves and goodwill alone.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Depreciation and shelf life are definitely major things in AI market realities.<\/strong> The value of 2023 tech vs 2026 tech, for example, needs to be in the numbers. <em>What are the real current asset values?<\/em> A fossilized inventory isn\u2019t necessarily an asset, even in the addled mental state of the US markets. Particularly in the AI sector where you can be blown out of the water by a new chip, LLM, and practically anything else.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-the-markets-are-right-to-be-unimpressed-and-scared-of-themselves\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The markets are right to be unimpressed and scared of themselves<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets are often their own worst enemies. The sub-primes roped in every sort of numbers manipulation in 2008 and <strong>took the whole US domestic economy with them.<\/strong> Idiotic fraudulent loans were rated triple A. The house of cards never had a chance of standing up, and it didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quite a lot of very sincere and often totally correct scatology goes into describing market behaviour. This time, positive and negative arguments are pretty strong in many ways:<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>First, the negatives.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is also a frontier investment sector. It\u2019s a whole new area of investment. Throwing money at things is what the market does. Hype is the adrenaline switch. Market mindsets are contagious. Does that sound like the last two years or so of frothing, flailing finances to you? Because that\u2019s exactly what it is.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>All of which leads to what, you may well ask.<\/em> It leads to a jumpy market handling trillions of dollars\u2019 worth of capital while walking a tightrope over the inferno of its own finances. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A market panic in the trillions of dollars range can\u2019t be anything but a colossal train wreck. The markets know that very well. Shaky numbers are the <em>expected<\/em> dead canaries in the coal mine. Meandering numbers are a terrible look. There\u2019s plenty to worry about.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Now, the positives.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There\u2019s just a bit of realism in iffy numbers at the moment. The AI sector and related businesses haven\u2019t really taken hold. Revenue in the bricks-and-mortar sense isn\u2019t yet a realistic expectation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The macro data environment and collateral cashflow aren\u2019t in any sort of normal business modes. The numbers are all over the shop, but that\u2019s to be expected. Lack of regulation doesn\u2019t help stability (or trust) in any business environment, but <strong>everyone <em>wants<\/em> regulation, and it <em>does<\/em> have to happen.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There\u2019s <strong>reason to believe that AI operational costs like energy can be drastically reduced<\/strong>, improving profitability. The sector is responding to these major issues, not very efficiently and with stunningly lousy PR, but it\u2019s at least pointed at solutions, not just more problems.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So it\u2019s not all bad. Just inarticulate and insensitive.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-accountancy-vs-the-ai-sector\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Accountancy vs the AI sector<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The fundamentals of accountancy do have every right to be there in AI businesses. Depreciation alone should have 24\/7 care and due diligence, and that\u2019s not an overstatement. Reporting needs to be responsive, not at a \u201cwhatever\u201d level.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Let\u2019s get a little bit terse, shall we?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AI has been promising the world for so long, and it\u2019s not delivering much more than hiccups in far too many ways.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In many ways, it\u2019s just a much more expensive way of doing the same things.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cRehiring syndrome\u201d<\/strong> has undercut one of the more repulsive tenets of AI, and has been a very unnecessary real disaster in progress. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chatbots don\u2019t impress anyone anymore.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AI agents aren\u2019t and can\u2019t be trusted on any level. Nice going, geniuses, killing your own gimmick.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AI security issues alone could sink big balance sheets, vast ranges of infrastructure, and anything else at the event horizon without a trace, and that issue\u2019s not even debatable.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unreliable numbers <em>are<\/em> the last straw. Pretend to be competent and produce some real numbers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- \u603b\u5bb9\u5668\uff1a\u6700\u5927\u5bbd908px Grid\u7d27\u51d1\u5e03\u5c40 -->\r\n<div style=\"display: grid; grid-template-columns: 728px 160px; gap:2px; width:908px; background:#eee; padding:2px;\">\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u901a\u680f\u9876\u90e8\uff1a\u6700\u5927\u6a2a\u5e45 908x258 \u8de8\u6574\u884c -->\r\n  <div style=\"grid-column:1\/-1; height:258px; background:#ff6b6b; display:grid; place-items:center;\">\r\n    <!-- JuicyAds v3.0 -->\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" data-cfasync=\"false\" async src=\"https:\/\/poweredby.jads.co\/js\/jads.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins id=\"1114307\" data-width=\"908\" data-height=\"258\"><\/ins>\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" data-cfasync=\"false\" async>(adsbyjuicy = window.adsbyjuicy || []).push({'adzone':1114307});<\/script>\r\n<!--JuicyAds END-->\r\n  <\/div>\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u7b2c\u4e8c\u901a\u680f\uff1a728\u00d790 \u901a\u680f -->\r\n  <div style=\"grid-column:1\/-1; 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display:grid; place-items:center;\">\r\n\t<!-- JuicyAds v3.0 -->\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" data-cfasync=\"false\" async src=\"https:\/\/poweredby.jads.co\/js\/jads.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins id=\"1114302\" data-width=\"133\" data-height=\"139\"><\/ins>\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" data-cfasync=\"false\" async>(adsbyjuicy = window.adsbyjuicy || []).push({'adzone':1114302});<\/script>\r\n<!--JuicyAds END-->\r\n\t<\/div>\r\n    <div style=\"height:125px; background:#91e7ac; display:grid; place-items:center;\">\r\n\t\r\n<!-- JuicyAds v3.0 -->\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" data-cfasync=\"false\" async src=\"https:\/\/poweredby.jads.co\/js\/jads.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins id=\"1114303\" data-width=\"125\" data-height=\"125\"><\/ins>\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" data-cfasync=\"false\" async>(adsbyjuicy = window.adsbyjuicy || []).push({'adzone':1114303});<\/script>\r\n<!--JuicyAds END-->\r\n\t<\/div>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u53f3\u4fa7\u7ad6\u680f\uff1a160\u00d7600 \u6574\u5217\u9ad8\u5e7f\u544a -->\r\n  <div style=\"grid-row:3\/8; height:600px;  display:grid; place-items:center;\">\r\n    <!-- JuicyAds v3.0 -->\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" data-cfasync=\"false\" async src=\"https:\/\/poweredby.jads.co\/js\/jads.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins id=\"1114301\" data-width=\"160\" data-height=\"600\"><\/ins>\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" data-cfasync=\"false\" async>(adsbyjuicy = window.adsbyjuicy || []).push({'adzone':1114301});<\/script>\r\n<!--JuicyAds END-->\r\n  <\/div>\r\n\r\n<\/div><br \/>\n<br \/> Op-Ed: AI revenue numbers aren\u2019t stacking up: The markets are responding to every breeze<br \/>\n<br \/>#OpEd #revenue #numbers #arent #stacking #markets #responding #breeze<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This new approach to market behaviourism analysis definitely won\u2019t reassure anyone. The markets are fighting&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22998,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[2975,16786,1028,6066,7300,15492,35,16785],"class_list":["post-22997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stories","tag-arent","tag-breeze","tag-markets","tag-numbers","tag-oped","tag-responding","tag-revenue","tag-stacking"],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a82722ad8411841c5568b7ff06182c5f2d0f8b42.jpg",768,512,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a82722ad8411841c5568b7ff06182c5f2d0f8b42-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a82722ad8411841c5568b7ff06182c5f2d0f8b42-300x200.jpg",300,200,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a82722ad8411841c5568b7ff06182c5f2d0f8b42.jpg",640,427,false],"large":["https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a82722ad8411841c5568b7ff06182c5f2d0f8b42.jpg",640,427,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a82722ad8411841c5568b7ff06182c5f2d0f8b42.jpg",768,512,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a82722ad8411841c5568b7ff06182c5f2d0f8b42.jpg",768,512,false],"covernews-slider-full":["https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a82722ad8411841c5568b7ff06182c5f2d0f8b42.jpg",768,512,false],"covernews-slider-center":["https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a82722ad8411841c5568b7ff06182c5f2d0f8b42-768x500.jpg",768,500,true],"covernews-featured":["https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a82722ad8411841c5568b7ff06182c5f2d0f8b42.jpg",768,512,false],"covernews-medium":["https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a82722ad8411841c5568b7ff06182c5f2d0f8b42-540x340.jpg",540,340,true],"covernews-medium-square":["https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a82722ad8411841c5568b7ff06182c5f2d0f8b42-400x250.jpg",400,250,true]},"author_info":{"display_name":"admin","author_link":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/?author=1"},"category_info":"<a href=\"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/?cat=7\" rel=\"category\">Stories<\/a>","tag_info":"Stories","comment_count":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22997","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22997"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22997\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/22998"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22997"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22997"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}