{"id":22145,"date":"2026-09-18T19:18:38","date_gmt":"2026-09-18T19:18:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/?p=22145"},"modified":"2026-09-18T19:18:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-18T19:18:38","slug":"jp-morgan-struggling-to-forecast-oil-prices-due-to-us-iran-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/?p=22145","title":{"rendered":"JP Morgan struggling to forecast oil prices due to US-Iran war"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <div style=\"display: grid; grid-template-columns: 300px 160px; gap: 2px; width: 460px; background: #eee; padding: 2px;\">\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u6574\u884c\u5bbd\u5e7f\u544a -->\r\n  <div style=\"grid-column: 1\/-1; width: 460px; height: 250px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876674\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n  <div style=\"grid-column: 1\/-1; width: 460px; height: 90px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876676\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u5de6\u4fa7\u7ad6\u6392 -->\r\n  <div style=\"height: 250px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876672\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n  <div style=\"height: 500px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876680\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u53f3\u4fa7\u6469\u5929\u697c\uff08\u548c\u5de6\u4fa7\u5b8c\u5168\u5bf9\u9f50\uff09 -->\r\n  <div style=\"grid-row: 3\/5; height: 750px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876678\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n  \r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e6\" data-zoneid=\"5876682\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n<\/div><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\"><b class=\"ssrcss-1xjjfut-BoldText e5tfeyi3\">Investment banking giant JP Morgan has said it is struggling to predict how oil prices will be impacted by the US-Iran war, telling investors in a rare note that &#8220;we simply don&#8217;t know how to model the endgame&#8221;.<\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">The bank said it assumed at the start of the conflict that there would be &#8220;economic red lines&#8221; that the Trump administration would be unwilling the cross, and therefore it believed a deal would have been struck to open up the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane back in June.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">It said such red lines included oil prices rising above $100 a barrel, inflation reaching 4%, gasoline topping $5 a gallon and rates on 10-year government borrowing hitting 5%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">&#8220;The market is on edge,&#8221; analysts said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">JP Morgan is a huge name in the financial world, so for the investment bank to admit its experts are grappling with working out the economic impact of the US-Iran conflict reflects the tricky nature of trying to predict President Donald Trump&#8217;s next moves.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">An oil and gas industry source told the BBC it was &#8220;unusual&#8221; for such a high-profile investment firm to issue such a note, but added it was a &#8220;reflection on the state of play&#8221;, given the uncertainties around the conflict. <\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">Investors often make investment decisions on inflation expectations and the price of oil is a major factor in prices rising across the world, given the commodity&#8217;s widespread use and humanity&#8217;s dependence on it.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">While gasoline remains below $5 and inflation has also not reached 4%, oil prices have surged back above $100 in recent weeks and the interest rate &#8211; known as a yield &#8211; on government bonds, which are issued in order for the US to borrow money from financial markets, has ticked over 5%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">&#8220;Six months later [since the war began], many of those lines have been crossed, yet the exit strategy is less clear, not more,&#8221; said the commodities research team at JP Morgan in note.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">&#8220;For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don&#8217;t have a baseline view. We simply don&#8217;t know how to model the endgame.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- \u603b\u5bb9\u5668\uff1a\u6700\u5927\u5bbd908px Grid\u7d27\u51d1\u5e03\u5c40 -->\r\n<div style=\"display: grid; grid-template-columns: 728px 160px; gap:2px; width:908px; background:#eee; padding:2px;\">\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u901a\u680f\u9876\u90e8\uff1a\u6700\u5927\u6a2a\u5e45 908x258 \u8de8\u6574\u884c -->\r\n  <div style=\"grid-column:1\/-1; height:258px; background:#ff6b6b; display:grid; place-items:center;\">\r\n    <!-- JuicyAds v3.0 -->\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" data-cfasync=\"false\" async src=\"https:\/\/poweredby.jads.co\/js\/jads.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins id=\"1114307\" data-width=\"908\" data-height=\"258\"><\/ins>\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" data-cfasync=\"false\" async>(adsbyjuicy = window.adsbyjuicy || []).push({'adzone':1114307});<\/script>\r\n<!--JuicyAds END-->\r\n  <\/div>\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u7b2c\u4e8c\u901a\u680f\uff1a728\u00d790 \u901a\u680f -->\r\n  <div style=\"grid-column:1\/-1; 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