{"id":10101,"date":"2026-05-18T11:15:54","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T11:15:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/?p=10101"},"modified":"2026-05-18T11:15:54","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T11:15:54","slug":"new-data-reveals-100-chance-of-strong-super-el-nino-forming-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/8657085.xyz\/?p=10101","title":{"rendered":"New data reveals 100% chance of strong \u2018Super\u2019 El Nino forming this year"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <div style=\"display: grid; grid-template-columns: 300px 160px; gap: 2px; width: 460px; background: #eee; padding: 2px;\">\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u6574\u884c\u5bbd\u5e7f\u544a -->\r\n  <div style=\"grid-column: 1\/-1; width: 460px; height: 250px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876674\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n  <div style=\"grid-column: 1\/-1; width: 460px; height: 90px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876676\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u5de6\u4fa7\u7ad6\u6392 -->\r\n  <div style=\"height: 250px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876672\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n  <div style=\"height: 500px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876680\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n\r\n  <!-- \u53f3\u4fa7\u6469\u5929\u697c\uff08\u548c\u5de6\u4fa7\u5b8c\u5168\u5bf9\u9f50\uff09 -->\r\n  <div style=\"grid-row: 3\/5; height: 750px; background: #ccc; display: grid; place-items: center;\">\r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e2\" data-zoneid=\"5876678\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n  \r\n  <script async type=\"application\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.magsrv.com\/ad-provider.js\"><\/script> \r\n <ins class=\"eas6a97888e6\" data-zoneid=\"5876682\"><\/ins> \r\n <script>(AdProvider = window.AdProvider || []).push({\"serve\": {}});<\/script>\r\n<\/div><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module alignleft wp-block-nypost-editor-partner-article-links\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>The latest long-range European forecast shows there\u2019s a 100% chance of a super\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o, potentially suppressing hurricane activity and making for a wetter fall and winter in the southern U.S.<\/p>\n<p>The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) issued their May long-range\u00a0forecast\u00a0model, which ups the chances of the strongest El Ni\u00f1o ever hitting by November.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Back in March, data only reached through September, when there was only about a 55% chance of reaching the Super El Ni\u00f1o threshold.<\/p>\n<p>The FOX Forecast Center said an El Ni\u00f1o of this caliber being predicted so early means it could be an event to look back on for years to come.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Typically, a strong El Ni\u00f1o like this one would mean suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and increased activity in the Eastern Pacific.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, the ECMWF isn\u2019t yet showing a strong decrease in hurricane forecast numbers for the season, making it possible that the strongest El Ni\u00f1o effects may not be felt until later into the season.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The latest forecast calls for 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes. The average in a season is 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, according to the FOX Forecast Center.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>The forecast of the predicted El Ni\u00f1o.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Near the U.S. Mainland, the ECMWF shows near-normal activity and above-average precipitation in the northern Gulf.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The forecast also shows Atlantic water temperatures rising to above average for most of the season.<\/p>\n<p>The forecast does, however, paint a picture of below-average tropical activity across most of the Atlantic Main Development Region. This essentially means that while El Ni\u00f1o is set to shut down the Atlantic tropics, it may not shut down all of it, the FOX Forecast Center said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific begins on May 15. The Atlantic hurricane season follows on June 1.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>A person pours water on a man\u2019s head to help with the heat at Death Valley National Park in California on August 3, 2025. <span class=\"credit\">AP<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>A infrared satellite image of Hurricane Otis.  <span class=\"credit\">RAAM-B \/ CIRA \/ FOX Weather<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Now that the forecast has been extended, models show above-average rain across the South.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The FOX Forecast Center expects that the winter months are likely to be beneficial for the Southeast, which is deep in drought.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- \u603b\u5bb9\u5668\uff1a\u6700\u5927\u5bbd908px Grid\u7d27\u51d1\u5e03\u5c40 -->\r\n<div style=\"display: grid; grid-template-columns: 728px 160px; gap:2px; width:908px; 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